National AI Strategy Test

The national AI strategy test is ten questions applied to any draft strategy. A draft that fails more than three is not ready for cabinet. The first two ask whether the strategy states which sovereignty layers are held, shared and accepted, and whether it carries a five-year operating cost rather than only a capital announcement.

National AI strategies commonly announce capability without committing to the operating cost of keeping it, and without stating which dependencies are being accepted deliberately.

The template

Run any draft strategy against these ten questions. A draft that fails more than three is not ready for cabinet.

  1. Does it state which sovereignty layers are held, shared, and accepted?
  2. Does it carry a five-year operating cost, not only a capital figure?
  3. Does it name an accountable institution for each commitment, with an individual title?
  4. Does it identify the data estate work that precedes the AI work?
  5. Does it commit to procurement clause reform with a date?
  6. Does it state what the state will not do?
  7. Does it include an exit or alternative for each accepted external dependency?
  8. Does it define measurable outcomes reportable quarterly?
  9. Does it address who is accountable when a public sector system harms a citizen?
  10. Does it survive a change of minister, meaning are the commitments institutional rather than personal?

How to use it

  • Run the test on the draft before it reaches cabinet, not after publication.
  • Count failures rather than debating each one. More than three is a signal about the document as a whole.
  • Pay particular attention to the operating cost question: capital is funded easily and year four is not.

Where this goes wrong

The failure modes below are the ones worth checking for first. Each describes a way this artefact stops doing its job while still appearing to be in use.

  • The strategy is judged on its document rather than on its commitments. Length, breadth, and the number of pillars say nothing. What matters is whether a named institution owns a dated deliverable with money behind it.
  • Funding is described without a source. A figure attached to no budget line, no appropriation, and no fiscal year is an aspiration. Ask which existing allocation it comes out of.
  • The strategy assumes capability that does not exist yet and does not fund building it. Plans that depend on scarce specialist staff, with no training pipeline and no pay scale that can attract them, stall at implementation regardless of how sound the analysis is.
  • There is no stated way to know the strategy has failed. A strategy with no falsifiable milestone cannot be corrected, only replaced, and replacement usually waits for a change of administration.

Common questions

What makes a national AI strategy credible?

It states which sovereignty layers are held, shared, and accepted rather than implying full self-sufficiency, and it carries a five-year operating cost rather than a capital announcement alone. Ten questions of this kind form the test; a draft that fails more than three is not ready for cabinet.